Use of non-invasive diagnostic tools for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis: A qualitative exploration of challenges and barriers.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Non-invasive tests (NITs) are underutilized for diagnosis and risk stratification in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), despite good accuracy. This study aimed to identify challenges and barriers to the use of NITs in clinical practice. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative exploratory study in Germany, Italy, United Kingdom and United States. Phase 1 participants (primary care physicians, hepatologists, diabetologists, researchers, healthcare administrators, payers and patient advocates; n = 29) were interviewed. Phase 2 participants (experts in MASLD; n = 8) took part in a group discussion to validate and expand on Phase 1 findings. Finally, we triangulated perspectives in a hybrid deductive/inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Four themes hindering the use of NITs emerged: (1) limited knowledge and awareness; (2) unclear referral pathways for patients affected by liver conditions; (3) uncertainty over the value of NITs in monitoring and managing liver diseases; and (4) challenges justifying system-level reimbursement. Through these themes, participants perceived a stigma associated with liver diseases, and primary care physicians generally lacked awareness, adequate knowledge and skills to use recommended NITs. We identified uncertainties over the results of NITs, specifically to guide lifestyle intervention or to identify patients that should be referred to a specialist. Participants indicated an ongoing need for research and development to improve the prognostic value of NITs and communicating their cost-effectiveness to payers. CONCLUSIONS: This qualitative study suggests that use of NITs for MASLD is limited due to several individual and system-level barriers. Multi-level interventions are likely required to address these barriers.

WFUMB Guidelines/Guidance on Liver Multiparametric Ultrasound. Part 2: Guidance on Liver Fat Quantification.

The World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology (WFUMB) has promoted the development of this document on multiparametric ultrasound. Part 2 is a guidance on the use of the available tools for the quantification of liver fat content with ultrasound. These are attenuation coefficient, backscatter coefficient, and speed of sound. All of them use the raw data of the ultrasound beam to estimate liver fat content. This guidance has the aim of helping the reader in understanding how they work and interpret the results. Confounding factors are discussed and a standardized protocol for measurement acquisition is suggested to mitigate them. The recommendations were based on published studies and experts' opinion but were not formally graded because the body of evidence remained low at the time of drafting this document.

Validation of NIAAAm-CRP criteria to predict alcohol-associated steatohepatitis on liver histology.

Background & Aims: In clinical practice, the diagnosis of alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is mostly based on non-invasive criteria, which were defined at a consensus conference by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA). These criteria were recently modified by adding C-reactive protein (CRP) and termed NIAAAm-CRP criteria, which showed superior diagnostic accuracy for presence of alcohol-associated steatohepatitis (ASH) on liver histology. The aim of our study was to validate the diagnostic accuracy of both original NIAAA criteria and NIAAAm-CRP criteria for presence of ASH on liver histology in an independent cohort. Methods: Data from a large multinational cohort of 445 patients with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) that served to establish a novel grading and staging system of alcohol-associated liver disease were analyzed retrospectively. Diagnosis of ASH was based on presence of hepatocyte ballooning plus lobular neutrophil infiltration and established in virtual consensus meetings of multiple expert liver pathologists. Results: Complete data including CRP values were available in 346 patients. Overall diagnostic accuracy for prediction of ASH was 73% for NIAAA criteria and 77% for NIAAAm-CRP criteria. In a subgroup with suspected severe AH (MELD >20, n = 123), overall diagnostic accuracy for prediction of ASH was 69% for NIAAA criteria and 74% for NIAAAm-CRP criteria. Conclusion: Our findings confirm recent data on suboptimal diagnostic accuracy of original NIAAA criteria and validate slightly better but still suboptimal performance of NIAAAm-CRP criteria for presence of ASH. Impact and Implications: Alcohol-associated steatohepatitis (ASH) is diagnosed on liver histology but liver biopsy is not always feasible. Non-invasive diagnosis based on clinical findings has been proposed using the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) criteria and recently improved using NIAAAm-CRP criteria. Our findings validate slightly better but still suboptimal performance of NIAAAm-CRP criteria for the presence of histological ASH. Clinical trials of novel drugs should focus on histologically proven ASH.

Non-invasive tests for alcohol-associated liver disease.

Alcohol consumption is a global phenomenon and a major contributor to alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). Detecting individuals at risk of ALD has been challenging, with only a small fraction of patients being identified at early stages compared to other chronic liver diseases. In response to this challenge, non-invasive tests (NITs) have become essential tools for the detection of ALD, offering opportunities for early identification and intervention to mitigate the disease burden. Non-invasive alcohol consumption biomarkers are crucial in estimating individuals' recent alcohol intake, providing valuable insights into their drinking patterns. Various NITs have been investigated for the initial screening of asymptomatic individuals at risk of ALD, as well as for identifying specific stages of the disease. These NITs are applied in two main clinical scenarios: population-based stratification for identifying and predicting liver-related symptoms, and diagnosing and prognosticating compensated cirrhosis or advanced chronic liver disease in secondary or tertiary care settings. Moreover, NITs play a significant role in the prognostic assessment of patients with various manifestations of ALD, including alcohol-associated hepatitis, decompensated cirrhosis, and metabolic and alcohol-associated liver disease. These tests guide appropriate treatment decisions and predict outcomes. In this review, various NITs for the early detection and monitoring of alcohol consumption were discussed. Additionally, the evaluation of NITs for screening and predicting ALD and liver complications was addressed comprehensively. Future perspectives of NITs for ALD were explored, alongside a thorough discussion of the opportunities and challenges associated with NITs for ALD screening.

Infections increase the risk of decompensation and death in patients with early alcohol-related liver disease.

Background & Aims: Infections are frequent in patients with cirrhosis and worsen prognosis. We evaluated the incidence of infections and their impact on decompensation and death in patients with early alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) during long-term follow-up. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study of patients in secondary care with a history of excess alcohol intake, no prior decompensation, and with liver biopsies along with clinical investigations conducted at baseline. During follow-up, we reviewed the patients' electronic healthcare records for cases of infections, hospitalizations, transient elastography measurements, decompensations, all-cause mortality, and alcohol intake. Results: We included 461 patients with a mean age of 56±10 years (76% males; fibrosis stage F0-1/F2/F3-4 = 259/107/93 [56%/23%/20%]). During a median follow-up of 4.5 years (IQR 2.9-6.3), 134 patients (29%) developed a total of 312 infections, most frequently pneumonia (106/312, 34%) and urinary tract infections (57/312, 18%). Excessive alcohol intake during follow-up, smoking ≥30 pack years, MELD score and elevated liver stiffness during follow-up were independent predictors of infections. Patients who developed at least one infection had a significantly increased risk of subsequent decompensation (hazard ratio 4.98, 95% CI 2.47-10.03) and death (hazard ratio 8.24, 95% CI 4.65-14.59). Infections increased the risk of decompensation and death independently of baseline fibrosis stage, age, gender, and MELD score. Conclusions: Almost one-third of patients with early ALD develop an infection, which worsens their prognosis by increasing the risk of decompensation and death. The risk of infections increases with liver disease severity and ongoing harmful use of alcohol. Impact and implications: This study reveals that infections significantly worsen the prognosis of patients with early alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), increasing the likelihood of decompensation and death by up to eight times. These findings, pertinent to healthcare providers, researchers, and policymakers, emphasize the importance of early prevention and management of infections in patients with ALD, even those in early stages who may be asymptomatic. It was observed that nearly one-third of patients with early-stage ALD developed infections over 4.5 years, with risk factors including alcohol overuse, smoking, and higher MELD scores. The research underscores the critical need to incorporate these insights into clinical practice and public health policies to improve patient outcomes and mitigate the impact of infections in patients with ALD.

Screening for liver fibrosis: lessons from colorectal and lung cancer screening.

Many countries have incorporated population screening programmes for cancer, such as colorectal and lung cancer, into their health-care systems. Cirrhosis is more prevalent than colorectal cancer and has a comparable age-standardized mortality rate to lung cancer. Despite this fact, there are no screening programmes in place for early detection of liver fibrosis, the precursor of cirrhosis. In this Perspective, we use insights from colorectal and lung cancer screening to explore the benefits, challenges, implementation strategies and pathways for future liver fibrosis screening initiatives. Several non-invasive methods and referral pathways for early identification of liver fibrosis exist, but in addition to accurate detection, screening programmes must also be cost-effective and demonstrate benefit through a reduction in liver-related mortality. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm this. Future randomized screening trials should evaluate not only the screening tests, but also interventions used to halt disease progression in individuals identified through screening.

Using liver stiffness to predict and monitor the risk of decompensation and mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is recommended for disease prognostication and monitoring. We evaluated if LSM, using transient elastography, and LSM changes predict decompensation and mortality in patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). METHODS: We performed an observational cohort study of compensated patients at risk of ALD from Denmark and Austria. We evaluated the risk of decompensation and all-cause mortality, stratified for compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD: baseline LSM ≥10 kPa) and LSM changes after a median of 2 years. In patients with cACLD, we defined LSM changes as (A) LSM increase ≥20% ("cACLD increasers") and (B) follow-up LSM <10 kPa or <20 kPa with LSM decrease ≥20% ("cACLD decreasers"). In patients without cACLD, we defined follow-up LSM ≥10 kPa as an LSM increase ("No cACLD increasers"). The remaining patients were considered LSM stable. RESULTS: We followed 536 patients for 3,008 patient-years, median age 57 years (IQR 49-63), baseline LSM 8.1 kPa (IQR 4.9-21.7). 371 patients (69%) had follow-up LSM after a median of 25 months (IQR 17-38), 41 subsequently decompensated and 55 died. Of 125 with cACLD at baseline, 14% were "cACLD increasers" and 43% "cACLD decreasers", while 13% of patients without cACLD were "No cACLD increasers" (n = 33/246). Baseline LSM, follow-up LSM and LSM changes accurately predicted decompensation (C-index: baseline LSM 0.85; follow-up LSM 0.89; LSM changes 0.85) and mortality (C-index: baseline LSM 0.74; follow-up LSM 0.74; LSM changes 0.70). When compared to "cACLD decreasers", "cACLD increasers" had significantly lower decompensation-free survival and higher risks of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio 4.39, p = 0.004) and mortality (hazard ratio 3.22, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: LSM by transient elastography predicts decompensation and all-cause mortality in patients with compensated ALD both at diagnosis and when used for monitoring. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Patients at risk of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are at significant risk of progressive disease and adverse outcomes. Monitoring is essential for optimal disease surveillance and patient guidance, but non-invasive monitoring tools are lacking. In this study we demonstrate that liver stiffness measurement (LSM), using transient elastography, and LSM changes after a median of 2 years, can predict decompensation and all-cause mortality in patients at risk of ALD with and without compensated advanced chronic liver disease. These findings are in line with results from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, hepatitis C and primary sclerosing cholangitis, and support the clinical utility of LSM, using transient elastography, for disease prognostication and monitoring in chronic liver diseases including ALD, as recommended by the Baveno VII.

Opportunities and barriers in omics-based biomarker discovery for steatotic liver diseases.

The rising prevalence of liver diseases related to obesity and excessive use of alcohol is fuelling an increasing demand for accurate biomarkers aimed at community screening, diagnosis of steatohepatitis and significant fibrosis, monitoring, prognostication and prediction of treatment efficacy. Breakthroughs in omics methodologies and the power of bioinformatics have created an excellent opportunity to apply technological advances to clinical needs, for instance in the development of precision biomarkers for personalised medicine. Via omics technologies, biological processes from the genes to circulating protein, as well as the microbiome - including bacteria, viruses and fungi, can be investigated on an axis. However, there are important barriers to omics-based biomarker discovery and validation, including the use of semi-quantitative measurements from untargeted platforms, which may exhibit high analytical, inter- and intra-individual variance. Standardising methods and the need to validate them across diverse populations presents a challenge, partly due to disease complexity and the dynamic nature of biomarker expression at different disease stages. Lack of validity causes lost opportunities when studies fail to provide the knowledge needed for regulatory approvals, all of which contributes to a delayed translation of these discoveries into clinical practice. While no omics-based biomarkers have matured to clinical implementation, the extent of data generated has enabled the hypothesis-free discovery of a plethora of candidate biomarkers that warrant further validation. To explore the many opportunities of omics technologies, hepatologists need detailed knowledge of commonalities and differences between the various omics layers, and both the barriers to and advantages of these approaches.

Algorithms for Early Detection of Silent Liver Fibrosis in the Primary Care Setting.

More than one-third of the adult world population has steatotic liver disease (SLD), with a few percent of individuals developing cirrhosis after decades of silent liver fibrosis accumulation. Lack of systematic early detection causes most patients to be diagnosed late, after decompensation, when treatment has limited effect and survival is poor. Unfortunately, no isolated screening test in primary care can sufficiently predict advanced fibrosis from SLD. Recent efforts, therefore, combine several parameters into screening algorithms, to increase diagnostic accuracy. Besides patient selection, for example, by specific characteristics, algorithms include nonpatented or patented blood tests and liver stiffness measurements using elastography-based techniques. Algorithms can be composed as a set of sequential tests, as recommended by most guidelines on primary care pathways. Future use of algorithms that are easy to interpret, cheap, and semiautomatic will improve the management of patients with SLD, to the benefit of global health care systems.

Validation of the new nomenclature of steatotic liver disease in patients with a history of excessive alcohol intake: an analysis of data from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Steatotic liver disease is a new overarching term that includes metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), metabolic dysfunction and alcohol-related steatotic liver disease (MetALD), and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). We aimed to validate the prognostic importance of MASLD, MetALD, and ALD as steatotic liver disease subclasses. METHODS: Between April 18, 2013, and Sept 17, 2018, we prospectively recruited patients aged 18-75 years with current or previous excessive alcohol intake (>24 g/day for women and >36 g/day for men) for at least a year and no previous hepatic decompensation from the Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at Odense University Hospital (Odense, Denmark). Participants were followed up until Sept 15, 2022. Here, we characterise these patients according to steatotic liver disease subclasses. We classified patients as having MASLD, MetALD, or ALD in accordance with the nomenclature definitions, on the basis of metabolic comorbidity and self-reported average alcohol intake in the 3 months leading up to inclusion. Histological scoring was done by a pathologist who was masked to the clinical data. We compared prognoses between classes using Cox regression analyses on hepatic decompensation and overall mortality as the two outcome measures. Patients not meeting the criteria for steatotic liver disease were classified as no steatotic liver disease and served as a reference group. FINDINGS: We enrolled 446 patients with a history of excessive alcohol intake were included in this analysis (334 [75%] were male and 112 [25%] were female; median age 56 years [SD 10]). Cirrhosis was present in 58 (13%), and 435 (98%) had at least one cardiometabolic risk factor. 321 (72%) met steatotic liver disease criteria and 125 (28%) did not have steatotic liver disease, meaning no evident liver steatosis and no significant fibrosis (≥F2). Of the 321 patients with steatotic liver disease, six (2%) were identified as having ALD due to the absence of cardiometabolic risk factors. The remaining 315 (98%) patients presented with at least one cardiometabolic risk factor. Of these patients, 153 (49%) had MASLD, 76 (24%) had MetALD, and 86 (27%) had ALD. During follow-up, 67 (15%) of 446 patients decompensated and 97 (22%) died (median follow-up 70 months [IQR 53-94]). Patients with steatotic liver disease had a significantly higher risk of hepatic decompensation and overall mortality than those without steatotic liver disease, independent of age, sex, and liver stiffness. The risk of decompensation increased in a stepwise manner from MASLD (hazard ratio 4·73 [95% CI 1·03-21·6]), through MetALD (7·69 [1·66-35·6]), to ALD (10·2 [2·24-46·4]). Similarly, overall mortality increased from MASLD (HR 2·30 [95% CI 1·08-4·90]), through MetALD (2·94 [1·31-6·58]), to ALD (3·57 [1·64-7·80]), independent of age, sex, and liver stiffness. INTERPRETATION: Steatotic liver disease and its subclasses portend distinct prognoses. There is a need to specify how historical alcohol intake should be integrated into the nomenclature and risk stratification of steatotic liver disease. FUNDING: EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program.

Implementation of a liver health check in people with type 2 diabetes.

As morbidity and mortality related to potentially preventable liver diseases are on the rise globally, early detection of liver fibrosis offers a window of opportunity to prevent disease progression. Early detection of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease allows for initiation and reinforcement of guidance on bodyweight management, risk stratification for advanced liver fibrosis, and treatment optimisation of diabetes and other metabolic complications. Identification of alcohol-related liver disease provides the opportunity to support patients with detoxification and abstinence programmes. In all patient groups, identification of cirrhosis ensures that patients are enrolled in surveillance programmes for hepatocellular carcinoma and portal hypertension. When considering early detection strategies, success can be achieved from applying ad-hoc screening for liver fibrosis in established frameworks of care. Patients with type 2 diabetes are an important group to consider case findings of advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, as up to 19% have advanced fibrosis (which is ten times higher than the general population) and almost 70% have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Additionally, patients with type 2 diabetes with alcohol use disorders have the highest proportion of liver-related morbidity of people with type 2 diabetes generally. Patients with type 2 diabetes receive an annual diabetes review as part of their routine clinical care, in which the health of many organs are considered. Yet, liver health is seldom included in this review. This Viewpoint argues that augmenting the existing risk stratification strategy with an additional liver health check provides the opportunity to detect advanced liver fibrosis, thereby opening a window for early interventions to prevent end-stage liver disease and its complications, including hepatocellular carcinoma.

Screening for Fibrosis Promotes Lifestyle Changes: A Prospective Cohort Study in 4796 Individuals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early detection of liver fibrosis is believed to promote lifestyle changes. We evaluated self-reported changes in alcohol intake, diet, exercise, and weight after participating in a screening study for liver fibrosis. METHODS: We conducted a prospective screening study of individuals at risk of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) or metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We provided lifestyle advice to all participants and evaluated lifestyle changes by questionnaires after 1 week and 6 months, with re-examination of a subgroup after 2 years. RESULTS: A total of 1850 at risk of ALD and 2946 at risk of MASLD were included, of whom 383 (8%) were screening positive (transient elastography ≥8 kPa). A total of 84% replied to the 6-month questionnaire. In ALD participants, excessive drinking decreased from 46% to 32% after 6 months. Only 15% reported increased drinking, without differences between screening positive and negative individuals (P = .698). In high-risk drinkers, a positive screening test predicted abstinence or decreased alcohol use after 6 months (odds ratio, 2.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-4.57; P = .005). After 2 years, excessive drinking decreased from 52% to 41% in a subgroup of 752 individuals and a positive screening test predicted abstinence or decreased alcohol use after 2 years (odds ratio, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-3.11, P = .023). MASLD participants showed similar improvements: 35% improved their diet, 22% exercised more, and 13% reported a weight loss ≥5% after 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for liver fibrosis is associated with sustained improvements in alcohol consumption, diet, weight, and exercise in at-risk ALD and MASLD. The changes are most pronounced in screening positive participants but not limited to this group.

Noninvasive assessment of hepatic decompensation.

Noninvasive tests (NITs) are used in all aspects of liver disease management. Their most prominent break-through since the millennium has been in advancing early detection of liver fibrosis, but their use is not limited to this. In contrast to the symptom-driven assessment of decompensation in patients with cirrhosis, NITs provide not only opportunities for earlier diagnoses but also accurate prognostication, targeted treatment decisions, and a means of monitoring disease. NITs can inform disease management and decision-making based on validated cutoffs and standardized interpretations as a valuable supplement to clinical acumen. The Baveno VI and VII consensus meetings resulted in tangible improvements to pathways of care for patients with compensated and decompensated advanced chronic liver disease, including the combination of platelet count and transient elastography to diagnose clinically significant portal hypertension. Furthermore, circulating NITs will play increasingly important roles in assessing the response to interventions against ascites, variceal bleeding, HE, acute kidney injury, and infections. However, due to NITs' wide availability, there is a risk of inaccurate use, leading to a waste of resources and flawed decisions. In this review, we describe the uses and pitfalls of NITs for hepatic decompensation, from risk stratification in primary care to treatment decisions in outpatient clinics, as well as for the in-hospital management of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. We summarize which NITs to use when, for what indications, and how to maximize the potential of NITs for improved patient management.

Algorithms for early detection of silent liver fibrosis in the primary care setting - a scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Fatty liver disease affects almost 30% of the adult population worldwide. Most patients are asymptomatic, and there is not a linear relationship between exposure to risk factors and the risk of developing fibrosis. The combination of a very large, asymptomatic risk population where only a few percent will develop life-threatening liver disease is a growing diagnostic challenge for the health services. Accurate fibrosis assessment in primary care is limited by poor correlation with liver blood tests and low availability of elastography. Non-invasive tests are promising tools, but little is known about their diagnostic accuracy in low-risk populations. AREAS COVERED: A scoping review was conducted to identify articles that focused on the current use of biomarkers and algorithms in primary care for the detection of patients with fatty liver disease in need of referral for further work-up. EXPERT OPINION: Currently available algorithms for targeted screening for liver fibrosis perform better than the individual routine liver blood tests or liver ultrasonography. However, primary care physicians urgently need algorithms with even higher diagnostic accuracies than what is available today. The main limitation of the existing widely accessible algorithms, such as the FIB-4, is the large number of false-positive tests, resulting in overdiagnosis and futile referrals to secondary care.

Binge drinking episode causes acute, specific alterations in systemic and hepatic inflammation-related markers.

BACKGROUND: Frequent binge drinking is a known contributor to alcohol-related harm, but its impact on systemic and hepatic inflammation is not fully understood. We hypothesize that changes in immune markers play a central role in adverse effects of acute alcohol intake, especially in patients with early liver disease. AIM: To investigate the effects of acute alcohol intoxication on inflammation-related markers in hepatic and systemic venous plasma in people with alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and healthy controls. METHODS: Thirty-eight participants (13 with ArLD, 15 with NAFLD and 10 healthy controls) received 2.5 mL of 40% ethanol per kg body weight via a nasogastric tube. Seventy-two inflammation-related markers were quantified in plasma from hepatic and systemic venous blood, at baseline, 60 and 180 min after intervention. RESULTS: Alcohol intervention altered the levels of 31 of 72 and 14 of 72 markers in the systemic and hepatic circulation. All changes observed in the hepatic circulation were also identified in the systemic circulation after 180 min. Only FGF21 and IL6 were increased after alcohol intervention, while the remaining 29 markers decreased. Differences in response to acute alcohol between the groups were observed for 8 markers, and FGF21 response was blunted in individuals with steatosis. CONCLUSION: Acute alcohol intoxication induced changes in multiple inflammation-related markers, implicated in alcohol metabolism and hepatocellular damage. Differences identified between marker response to binge drinking in ArLD, NAFLD and healthy controls may provide important clues to disease mechanisms and potential targets for treatment. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT03018990.

Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).